UFC 236 occurs Saturday night in Atlanta, and you’ll be able to watch the five-fight principal card reside on ESPN+. The card is ripe with fascinating fights through the night, but the majority of fans will likely be most-interested in the event’s closing two fights for the interim middleweight and lightweight names.
We have you covered with comprehensive betting analysis on the primary and co-main occasion…
Max Holloway & Dustin Poirier Rematch for Lightweight Gold
Can Kelvin Gastelum Steal Israel Adesanya’s Spotlight?
… but that doesn’t mean we can’t learn a thing or 2 on the night’s additional 11 struggles!
What follows is a brief breakdown on each matchup at UFC 236 in an effort to learn enough about each fighter to produce a more educated wager on these if your heart needs.
Interim Lightweight Title Fight: Max Holloway (-205) vs. Dustin Poirier (+165)
Poirier was on a war path since returning to light-weight April, 2015. Overall, he has won eight of the last 10 battles and suffered only 1 loss (KO to Michael Johnson) along with one no contest in his first fight against Eddie Alvarez. Poirier ranks first among active UFC lightweights in striking differential per second at +2.69.
Both Poirier (7.11 strikes per minute) and Holloway (6.9) rank among the top-five highest-volume strikers from the total UFC. Holloway’s volume is like an avalanche that becomes more-and-more overpowering as the battle continues.
Holloway’s last fight was arguably the finest championship performance in UFC history. Overall, his 290 significant strikes in a struggle broke the UFC tournament record.
Holloway started the week as a -230 favorite, but activity has arrived in greatly on Poirier ever since.
Interim Middleweight Title Fight: Kelvin Gastelum (+150) vs. Israel Adesanya (-185)
Gastelum managed to record at least one knockdown against former champions Jacare Souza, Michael Bisping, Chris Weidman and Vitor Belfort during his hellacious run through the middleweight division. His constant barrages of one-two combinations have been difficult for just about all of his opponents do cope with throughout his career.
Israel’The previous Stylebender’ Adesanya is a former Glory Kickboxing champion that has rung up a 16-0 record to start his own mixed martial arts profession. He won’t want anything related to Gastelum — a country championship wrestler in high school — about the floor, but we have yet to see some come close to out-classing Adesanya on the feet during his five UFC wins.
Adesanya opened the week as a -175 favorite, but has since moved up to -185 behind the public’s support.
Light Heavyweight Fight: Eryk Anders (-200) vs. Khalil Rountree (+160)
Anders played linebacker under Nick Saban in Alabama from 2006-2009 before beginning his mixed martial arts career. These three of Anders’ livelihood losses have come in his last four fights, but these were two split-decision losses combined with a single TKO reduction via referee stoppage during his short-notice light heavyweight debut against Thiago Santos, who’ll fight Jon Jones for the branch’s championship in July.
Rountree listed the biggest victory of his career at UFC 226 against long-time championship kickboxer Gokhan Saki, but was subsequently knocked out by rising contender Johnny Walker past November. Rountree’s career striking differential of -0.99 has made it hard for him to win fights by any way aside from a conclusion, and he has accordingly lost both of his livelihood UFC fights that have made it past the first round.
Welterweight Fight: Alan Jouban (-120) vs. Dwight Grant (-110)
Jouban will probably be giving up a five-inch advantage benefit to Grant. This is uncharted territory for Jouban throughout his 11-fight UFC profession, but he’s 3-1 in conflicts with a reach benefit of three or more inches. Meanwhile, Grant is 1-1 in the UFC with a victory over Carlo Pedersoli Jr. (75-inch reach) plus a split-decision reduction to Zak Ottow (72-inch reach).
The x-factor in this struggle might end up being volume. Jouban finds himself among the top-10 welterweights in UFC history in knockdowns landed (No. 4), important strike accuracy (No. 7), strikes landed per second (No. 3) and striking differential (No. 4).
Light Heavyweight Fight: Ovince Saint Preux (-110) vs. Nikita Krylov (-120)
Krylov has quite literally had a fight go to the judges in 30 career MMA fights. This includes 10 fights inside the Octagon, which have showcased three wins by TKO/KO and three by entry in contrast to three losses by entry and one by TKO.
This is actually a rematch from UFC 171, when OSP defeated Krylov by first-round submission. The end featured Saint Preux’s signature entry: The Von Flue choke.
UFC 236 Prelims
Lightweight Fight: Jalin Turner (-140) vs. Matt Frevola (+110)
Turner boasts enormous elevation (6-foot-3 vs. 5-foot-9) and attain (77 inches vs. 71) advantages over Frevola, although that advantage could be mitigated if the latter fighter can instigate his takedown-heavy attack. Turner was last observed starching Callan Potter in just 53 seconds back at UFC 234 in February.
Flyweight Fight: Wilson Reis (+130) vs. Alexandre Pantoja (-160)
Reis is presently the UFC’s No. 4 ranked flyweight before his bout with fifth-ranked Alexandre Pantoja. Although Reis has lost three of his past four fights, they have come against a high-level competitors like John Moraga, current flyweight champion Henry Cejudo and former winner Demetrious Johnson. The two Reis (12:08) and Pantoja (11:58) have typical combat times that would indicate we’ll see this fight last into the next round.
Welterweight Fight: Max Griffin (-105) vs. Zelim Imadaev (-125)
Imadaev opened the week with -115 chances. Public support has come in on the undefeated Russian, who has won all eight of the fights by TKO or KO. He is making his debut within the octagon against Max Griffin, who has lost four of the last six fights dating back to August, 2016. There’s a bit of bad blood here, as Griffin sparred with Imadaev once upon a time and had this to say about his opponent…
“He’s an ass, man. He is not a fantastic guy… I really don’t like the man… I’m excited about showing him what it’s like.”
Bantamweight Fight: Boston Salmon (-150) vs. Khalid Taha (+120)
Boston’Boom Boom’ Salmon has only lost once in seven seven career conflicts (by split-decision). Salmon won his final fight against Ricky Turcios on the debut episode of Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series. He’ll hold a four-inch height benefit of Taha, who has dropped two of his last 3 fights. Backing Salmon at his ancient -135 odds was one of my favorite bets on the card, but he offers a little bit of worth at his current -150 chances.
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UFC 236 Early Prelims
Welterweight Fight: Curtis Millender (+115) vs. Belal Muhammad (-145)
Millender fought only last month in UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. dos Santos, ultimately losing by submission (rear-naked choke) into Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos. Muhammad continues to be active, as he suffered a unanimous decision loss to Geoff Neal back in January in UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw. Millender boasts four and three inch height and reach advantages, respectively, though Muhammad continues to be a lot more of a takedown hazard during his UFC career.
Bantamweight Fight: Montel Jackson (-550) vs. Andre Soukhamthath (+375)
Jackson opened the week as a -500 favored, but has since moved even higher. He’s the biggest favorite on the card. Soukhamthath is 13-6 as a skilled and has been fed to Jackson, who has dropped only once in eight career bouts.
Women Strawweight Fight: Lauren Mueller (+145) vs. Poliana Botelho (-175)
Both these women have high striking prices and don’t waste their time getting started. This is very true for Botelho, who notched the third-fastest end in the history of the UFC women’s branch back in May, 2018.
Bantamweight Fight: Brandon Davis (-170) vs. Randy Costa (+140)
Costa is undefeated in four professional conflicts, while Davis is only 9-5. Both fighters are making a debut of sorts, as Costa will be inside the octagon for the first time in his career, while Davis has seemingly never fought at 135 pounds.
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