Assessment of Macroeconomic Effects of Financial Liberalization in Tanzania: An Ardl Approach
Corresponding Author(s) : Cornel Joseph
Journal of Humanities & Social Science (JHSS),
Vol. 13 No. 2 (2024)
Abstract
Among the policies of economic reforms implemented in Tanzania has been the liberalization of the financial sector, which has been ongoing since the beginning of the 1990s. The financial liberalization hypothesis, considers that liberalization in economically suppressed developing countries contribute to increased savings, particularly financial savings, more credit supply, and better investment opportunities that stimulate economic growth. Informed by the hypothesis, this study investigates the influence of financial liberalization on selected macroeconomic variables, which are savings, investment and economic growth. The ARDL method is employed with bound testing procedures, analyzing annual time-series data from 1990 to 2022. The results show that there is some support for a positive relationship between financial liberalization and savings, investment and economic growth during the study period. The policy implications emphasize the need to broaden financial liberalization beyond interest rate liberalization, including the attraction of capital inflows to boost savings, investment and economic growth.
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- Abe, S., Fry, M. J., Min, B. K., Vongvipanond, P., & Yu, T. P. (1975). The demand for money in Pakistan: Some alternative estimates. The Pakistan Development Review, 14(2), 249-257.
- Adam, A. H. (2020). The effect of financial liberalization on economic growth in selected Middle East, North Africa and Sub-Sahara Africa countries 1986-2018. East African Scholars Journal of Economics, Business and Management, 3(9), 739-747.
- Ahmed, S. M., & Ansari, M. I. (1995). Financial development in Bangladesh—A test of the McKinnon-Shaw model. Canadian Journal of Development Studies/Revue canadienned'études du développement, 16(2), 291-302.
- Ajide, K. B., & Lawanson, O. (2012). Modelling the Long Run Determinants of Domestic Private Investment in Nigeria. Asian Social Science, 8(13).
- Akinsola, F. A., & Odhiambo, N. M. (2017). The impact of financial liberalization on economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa. Cogent Economics & Finance, 5(1), 1338851.
- Athukorala, P., &Rajapatirana, S. (1993). Liberalization of the domestic financial market: Theoretical issues with evidence from Sri Lanka. International Economic Journal, 7(4), 17-33.
- Bano, S. S. (2018). The dynamic relationship between real interest rate and investment: An empirical analysis for selected Pacific Island countries. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 8(5), 131.
- Bouzid, A. (2012). McKinnon’s complementarity hypothesis: empirical evidence for the Arab Maghrebean countries. The Romanian Economic Journal, 44, 23-36.
- Bushiri, L., Komba, C., & Mwakujonga, J. (2024). The Influence of Interest and Exchange Rates on the Growth of Private Investment in the Tropics: The Case of Tanzania. In Economic Growth and Development in the Tropics (pp. 105-121). Routledge.
- Chaudhry, I. S., Malik, A., & Farooq, F. (2007). Financial liberalization and macroeconomic performance: Empirical evidence from Pakistan.
- Dahunsi, O. (2020). Effect of interest rate liberalisation on domestic savings in Nigeria. Journal of Advanced Research in Economics and Administrative Sciences, 1(2), 123-133.
- Evans, A. D., Green, C. J., & Murinde, V. (2002). Human capital and financial development in economic growth: new evidence using the translog production function. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 7(2), 123.
- Fry, M. J. (1978). Money and Capital or Financial Deepening in Economic Development?. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 10(4), 464-475.
- Ghatak, S. (1997). Financial Liberalization: The Case of Sri Lanka. Empirical Economics, 22, 117-129.
- Gill, H. U. (2005). “A Test of McKinnon's Complementarity Hypothesis: A Case Study of Pakistan”. Pakistan Economic and Social Review, 43, 21-37.
- Hayward, M. P. C., Iden, M. G., Lybek, M. T., Mehran, M. H., Swaray, M. S., Ugolini, M. P., & Briffaut, J. P. (1998). Financial sector development in sub-Saharan African countries. International Monetary Fund.
- Hermes, N., & Lensink, R. (2008). Does financial liberalization influence saving, investment and economic growth? Evidence from 25 emerging market economies, 1973–96. In Financial development, institutions, growth and poverty reduction (pp. 164-189). London: Palgrave Macmillan UK.
- Kargbo, S. M. (2010). “Financial Liberalization and Savings Mobilization in Sierra Leone: A Test of McKinnon’s Complementarity Hypothesis”. West African Journal of Monetary and Economic Integration, 10(1), 131-170.
- Kilindo, A. A. L. (2002). Interest rate liberalization and the saving investment process: an econometric validation of the Mckinnon-Shaw hypotheses in Tanzania. Business Management Review, 8(2), 62-80.
- Laumas, P. S. (1990). “Monetization, Financial Liberalization and Economic Developmen”t.Economic Development and Cultural Change, 38(2), 377-390.
- Moore, T. (2010). “A critical appraisal of McKinnon’s complementarity hypothesis: Does the real rate of return on money matter for investment in developing countries?”World Development, 38(3), 260-269.
- Mukherjee, C; H.White and M. Wuyts (1998). Econometrics and Data Analysis for Developing Countries. London, New York. Routledge.
- Mwakabungu, B. H. P., & Kauangal, J. (2023). An empirical analysis of the relationship between FDI and economic growth in Tanzania. Cogent Economics & Finance, 11(1), 2204606.
- Mwanga, J., & Sanday, A. (2013). The effect of financial sector liberalisation on economic growth: Evidence from Uganda'. International Journal of Economics and Management Sciences, 2(9), 58-79.
- Ndirangu, N. (2008), The Impact of Financial Liberalization on Savings in Kenya. Unpublished Master Thesis for the University of Nairobi.
- Nkoro, E., & Uko, A. K. (2016). Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration technique: application and interpretation. Journal of Statistical and Econometric methods, 5(4), 63-91.
- Nyanzi, S. &Kaberuka, W. (2013), The Effect of Financial Sector Liberalization on Private Financial Savings in Uganda (1980-2007), Greener Journal of Social Sciences, 3(4), 187- 202.
- Odhiambo, N. (2002). Financial Sector Reforms, Savings, and Economic Development in Kenya. African Review of Money Finance and Banking, 5-22.
- Odhiambo, N. M. (2006). Financial liberalisation and savings in South Africa: An empirical analysis. African review of money finance and banking, 61-74.
- Odhiambo, N. M. (2010). Interest rate reforms, financial deepening and economic growth in Tanzania: A dynamic linkage. Journal of Economic Policy Reform, 13(2), 201-212.
- Ogwumike, F. O., &Ofoegbu, D. I. (2012). Financial liberalisation and domestic savings in Nigeria. The Social Sciences, 7(4), 635-646.
- Onwumere, J. U. J., Okore, O. A., &Ibe, I. G. (2012). The impact of interest rate liberalization on savings and investment: Evidence from Nigeria. Research Journal of Finance and Accounting, 3(10), 130-136.
- Onwumere, J. U. J., Okore, O. A., &Ibe, I. G. (2012). The impact of interest rate liberalization on savings and investment: Evidence from Nigeria. Research journal of Finance and Accounting, 3(10), 130-136.
- Orji, A., Eigbirenmolen, G. O., &Ogbuabor, J. E. (2014). Impact of financial liberalization on private investment: Empirical evidence from Nigerian data. Review of Economics and Finance, 4, 77-86.
- Pentecost, E. J., & Moore, T. (2006). Financial liberalization in India and a new test of the complementarity hypothesis. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 54(2), 487-502.
- Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of applied econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.
- Sulaiman, L. A., Oke, M. O., & Azeez, B. A. (2012). Effect of financial liberalization on economic growth in developing countries: The Nigerian experience. International Journal of Economics and Management Sciences, 1(12), 16-28.
- Twerefou, D. K., &Ayimadu, B. Y. (2018). Effects of financial deepening on saving mobilisation: Evidence from African countries. International Journal of Contemporary Research and Review, 9(7), 20917-20928.
- Udude C. C. (2015). Impact of interest rate on savings on Nigeria’s economy. Journal of Policy and Development Studies, 9(3).
References
Abe, S., Fry, M. J., Min, B. K., Vongvipanond, P., & Yu, T. P. (1975). The demand for money in Pakistan: Some alternative estimates. The Pakistan Development Review, 14(2), 249-257.
Adam, A. H. (2020). The effect of financial liberalization on economic growth in selected Middle East, North Africa and Sub-Sahara Africa countries 1986-2018. East African Scholars Journal of Economics, Business and Management, 3(9), 739-747.
Ahmed, S. M., & Ansari, M. I. (1995). Financial development in Bangladesh—A test of the McKinnon-Shaw model. Canadian Journal of Development Studies/Revue canadienned'études du développement, 16(2), 291-302.
Ajide, K. B., & Lawanson, O. (2012). Modelling the Long Run Determinants of Domestic Private Investment in Nigeria. Asian Social Science, 8(13).
Akinsola, F. A., & Odhiambo, N. M. (2017). The impact of financial liberalization on economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa. Cogent Economics & Finance, 5(1), 1338851.
Athukorala, P., &Rajapatirana, S. (1993). Liberalization of the domestic financial market: Theoretical issues with evidence from Sri Lanka. International Economic Journal, 7(4), 17-33.
Bano, S. S. (2018). The dynamic relationship between real interest rate and investment: An empirical analysis for selected Pacific Island countries. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 8(5), 131.
Bouzid, A. (2012). McKinnon’s complementarity hypothesis: empirical evidence for the Arab Maghrebean countries. The Romanian Economic Journal, 44, 23-36.
Bushiri, L., Komba, C., & Mwakujonga, J. (2024). The Influence of Interest and Exchange Rates on the Growth of Private Investment in the Tropics: The Case of Tanzania. In Economic Growth and Development in the Tropics (pp. 105-121). Routledge.
Chaudhry, I. S., Malik, A., & Farooq, F. (2007). Financial liberalization and macroeconomic performance: Empirical evidence from Pakistan.
Dahunsi, O. (2020). Effect of interest rate liberalisation on domestic savings in Nigeria. Journal of Advanced Research in Economics and Administrative Sciences, 1(2), 123-133.
Evans, A. D., Green, C. J., & Murinde, V. (2002). Human capital and financial development in economic growth: new evidence using the translog production function. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 7(2), 123.
Fry, M. J. (1978). Money and Capital or Financial Deepening in Economic Development?. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 10(4), 464-475.
Ghatak, S. (1997). Financial Liberalization: The Case of Sri Lanka. Empirical Economics, 22, 117-129.
Gill, H. U. (2005). “A Test of McKinnon's Complementarity Hypothesis: A Case Study of Pakistan”. Pakistan Economic and Social Review, 43, 21-37.
Hayward, M. P. C., Iden, M. G., Lybek, M. T., Mehran, M. H., Swaray, M. S., Ugolini, M. P., & Briffaut, J. P. (1998). Financial sector development in sub-Saharan African countries. International Monetary Fund.
Hermes, N., & Lensink, R. (2008). Does financial liberalization influence saving, investment and economic growth? Evidence from 25 emerging market economies, 1973–96. In Financial development, institutions, growth and poverty reduction (pp. 164-189). London: Palgrave Macmillan UK.
Kargbo, S. M. (2010). “Financial Liberalization and Savings Mobilization in Sierra Leone: A Test of McKinnon’s Complementarity Hypothesis”. West African Journal of Monetary and Economic Integration, 10(1), 131-170.
Kilindo, A. A. L. (2002). Interest rate liberalization and the saving investment process: an econometric validation of the Mckinnon-Shaw hypotheses in Tanzania. Business Management Review, 8(2), 62-80.
Laumas, P. S. (1990). “Monetization, Financial Liberalization and Economic Developmen”t.Economic Development and Cultural Change, 38(2), 377-390.
Moore, T. (2010). “A critical appraisal of McKinnon’s complementarity hypothesis: Does the real rate of return on money matter for investment in developing countries?”World Development, 38(3), 260-269.
Mukherjee, C; H.White and M. Wuyts (1998). Econometrics and Data Analysis for Developing Countries. London, New York. Routledge.
Mwakabungu, B. H. P., & Kauangal, J. (2023). An empirical analysis of the relationship between FDI and economic growth in Tanzania. Cogent Economics & Finance, 11(1), 2204606.
Mwanga, J., & Sanday, A. (2013). The effect of financial sector liberalisation on economic growth: Evidence from Uganda'. International Journal of Economics and Management Sciences, 2(9), 58-79.
Ndirangu, N. (2008), The Impact of Financial Liberalization on Savings in Kenya. Unpublished Master Thesis for the University of Nairobi.
Nkoro, E., & Uko, A. K. (2016). Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration technique: application and interpretation. Journal of Statistical and Econometric methods, 5(4), 63-91.
Nyanzi, S. &Kaberuka, W. (2013), The Effect of Financial Sector Liberalization on Private Financial Savings in Uganda (1980-2007), Greener Journal of Social Sciences, 3(4), 187- 202.
Odhiambo, N. (2002). Financial Sector Reforms, Savings, and Economic Development in Kenya. African Review of Money Finance and Banking, 5-22.
Odhiambo, N. M. (2006). Financial liberalisation and savings in South Africa: An empirical analysis. African review of money finance and banking, 61-74.
Odhiambo, N. M. (2010). Interest rate reforms, financial deepening and economic growth in Tanzania: A dynamic linkage. Journal of Economic Policy Reform, 13(2), 201-212.
Ogwumike, F. O., &Ofoegbu, D. I. (2012). Financial liberalisation and domestic savings in Nigeria. The Social Sciences, 7(4), 635-646.
Onwumere, J. U. J., Okore, O. A., &Ibe, I. G. (2012). The impact of interest rate liberalization on savings and investment: Evidence from Nigeria. Research Journal of Finance and Accounting, 3(10), 130-136.
Onwumere, J. U. J., Okore, O. A., &Ibe, I. G. (2012). The impact of interest rate liberalization on savings and investment: Evidence from Nigeria. Research journal of Finance and Accounting, 3(10), 130-136.
Orji, A., Eigbirenmolen, G. O., &Ogbuabor, J. E. (2014). Impact of financial liberalization on private investment: Empirical evidence from Nigerian data. Review of Economics and Finance, 4, 77-86.
Pentecost, E. J., & Moore, T. (2006). Financial liberalization in India and a new test of the complementarity hypothesis. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 54(2), 487-502.
Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of applied econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.
Sulaiman, L. A., Oke, M. O., & Azeez, B. A. (2012). Effect of financial liberalization on economic growth in developing countries: The Nigerian experience. International Journal of Economics and Management Sciences, 1(12), 16-28.
Twerefou, D. K., &Ayimadu, B. Y. (2018). Effects of financial deepening on saving mobilisation: Evidence from African countries. International Journal of Contemporary Research and Review, 9(7), 20917-20928.
Udude C. C. (2015). Impact of interest rate on savings on Nigeria’s economy. Journal of Policy and Development Studies, 9(3).